VISITING EXPERT. As the right grows in power in Europe and the United States, tensions within NATO intensify, complicating transatlantic cooperation. Simultaneously, a potential conflict between Beijing and Taiwan threatens to upset the global geopolitical and economic balance. It is imperative to prepare Quebec to face these potential issues in this uncertain environment. How can Quebec strengthen its cybersecurity and economic resilience to protect itself from the repercussions of such a conflict? We must develop a proactive approach to securing our future in the face of these emerging threats by examining current strategies and anticipating future challenges. This text aims to identify a few areas of thought to ensure the resilience and security of our critical infrastructures in an unstable geopolitical context.
How would a conflict between China and Taiwan impact our cybersecurity capabilities?
An armed conflict between China and Taiwan could significantly impact Canada’s cybersecurity capabilities. First, global dependence on semiconductors produced in Taiwan would lead to a severe shortage of these critical components, directly affecting cybersecurity equipment production and updating. A prolonged shortage could force us to operate with outdated critical infrastructure more vulnerable to cyberattacks.
In addition, escalating geopolitical tensions could intensify cyber threats from China, increasing the frequency and sophistication of attacks against Canadian businesses.
Finally, Canada, as a member of international alliances such as Five Eyes, may be involved in collective response efforts, requiring increased coordination among allies to counter cyber threats and ensure infrastructure resilience. The impact on global semiconductor supply chains and the need to strengthen cybersecurity measures underscore the importance of preparing robust strategies to deal with such conflict scenarios.
Semiconductor shortage
Taiwan is home to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), the world’s largest semiconductor manufacturer. Taiwan produces about 63% of the world’s semiconductors and over 90% of the most technologically advanced chips. TSMC is the leading GPU manufacturer for tech giants like NVIDIA and AMD, two GPU market leaders. GPUs produced by TSMC are state-of-the-art and used in data centres, supercomputers, and consumer devices for intensive AI (artificial intelligence) tasks. This dominance means that any production disruption in Taiwan could have a major impact on supply chains globally.
The measures taken in the United States.
Without going into detail, the United States has implemented several measures to prepare for a potential Chinese-Taiwanese conflict, focusing particularly on securing semiconductor supply chains and strengthening its military in the Indo-Pacific region.
- CHIPS and Science Act: This law was passed in 2022 and provides subsidies and tax incentives to encourage domestic semiconductor production. The law aims to reduce dependence on Taiwan and secure the supply of critical technologies.
- Domestic capacity development: Massive investments have been made in semiconductor manufacturing facilities in the U.S., with companies like TSMC, Samsung, and Intel building new plants in Arizona, Texas, and Ohio.
- Military preparations: The United States has strengthened its military presence in the Indo-Pacific region, including joint exercises with allies and expanded access to military bases in the Philippines.
- Supply chain diversification: Encourage companies to diversify their suppliers and build critical component pools to mitigate the impact of potential disruptions.
Canada’s actions
Canada is taking a different approach by focusing on diplomacy and international cooperation.
- Diplomatic support: Canada maintains a diplomatic support policy for Taiwan while formally recognizing the One China policy. Taiwan is important to Canada as it is Canada’s 12th largest trading partner. However, we must not forget that China is second only to the United States. It is a difficult situation.
- Economic preparations: While Canada does not have legislation similar to the CHIPS and Science Act, it closely monitors potential economic impacts and supply chain disruptions. Canada wants to be very quiet about tangible measures to deal with this imminent threat.
What are we doing here in Quebec?
With the recent release of Quebec’s Stratégie gouvernementale de cybersécurité (Governmental Cybersecurity Strategy) for 2024-2028, there is a clear positioning toward a better cybersecurity posture. Here is a summary.
The Stratégie gouvernementale de cybersécurité focuses on three key axes:
- Improve cybersecurity in public administration: This initiative aims to strengthen the security of public services and protect the data of citizens, businesses and public administration.
- Accelerate the digital transformation of public administration: the aim is to unify digital services, improve mobility and data exploitation, optimize performance through artificial intelligence, and maximize the impact of projects on information resources.
- Develop sustainable and secure technological infrastructures: this initiative aims to consolidate technological assets, reduce informational asset obsolescence and support the deployment of telecommunications infrastructures.
The Government of Quebec is making remarkable efforts in cybersecurity, being the only province to have created a cybersecurity department (the ministère de la Cybersécurité et du Numérique) and implemented a dedicated strategy. This represents an important step forward in building digital infrastructure resilience. However, given the tense geopolitical context, particularly with the escalation of China and Taiwan tensions, I would have liked to see additional measures in this strategy.
Several elements should be planned in the short term to further strengthen Quebec’s cybersecurity in the context of geopolitical tensions. Partnerships with different suppliers would be beneficial to diversify supply sources and minimize shortage risks. Moreover, boosting local cybersecurity expertise through support programs could improve our technological autonomy. I must mention the efforts made regarding this with Cybereco, a catalyst for developing cybersecurity cooperation in Quebec. It would also be wise to store material in advance or anticipate equipment updates to ensure availability. A program dedicated to updating equipment proactively could prepare Quebec for a potential shortage. Finally, developing public-private partnerships with local cybersecurity software manufacturers would quickly increase Quebec’s defensive capabilities. This would reduce our dependence on Canadian partners who could be heavily solicited in the event of an open conflict between China and Taiwan.
Conclusion
Quebec must develop local and advanced cybersecurity capabilities in a tense geopolitical context. Leveraging local expertise through public-private partnerships and ensuring the availability of up-to-date technological equipment to counter threats is essential. The exponential acceleration of artificial intelligence capabilities requires Quebec to rapidly implement modern infrastructures and accelerate the training of talent not only to defend itself but also to become a cybersecurity leader. We can turn these threats into opportunities for growth and leadership by strengthening our technological autonomy and anticipating future challenges.